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Can the Prediction Market Improve Predictions of COVID-19?

The safety and scientific validity of this study is the responsibility of the study sponsor and investigators. Listing a study does not mean it has been evaluated by the U.S. Federal Government. Read our disclaimer for details.
 
ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04410692
Recruitment Status : Completed
First Posted : June 1, 2020
Last Update Posted : June 2, 2020
Sponsor:
Information provided by (Responsible Party):
Ho Teck Hua, National University, Singapore

Brief Summary:

The goal of this study is to better understand how people predict the future risks of the novel Coronavirus (COVID-19).

Specifically, the investigators will ask the following research questions:

  • How well do participants predict the future risks of COVID-19?
  • Can the predictions be improved by using a prediction market mechanism?
  • Does the prediction market reduce people's fear of COVID-19?

Condition or disease Intervention/treatment Phase
Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice Other: Prediction Market Not Applicable

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Study Type : Interventional  (Clinical Trial)
Actual Enrollment : 560 participants
Allocation: Randomized
Intervention Model: Parallel Assignment
Masking: None (Open Label)
Primary Purpose: Other
Official Title: Can the Prediction Market Improve Predictions of COVID-19?
Actual Study Start Date : May 15, 2020
Actual Primary Completion Date : May 16, 2020
Actual Study Completion Date : May 17, 2020

Arm Intervention/treatment
No Intervention: Control
Participants' COVID-19 predictions are elicited via a survey
Experimental: Treatment
Participants' COVID-19 predictions are elicited via a prediction market
Other: Prediction Market
Participants "bet" on likely future outcomes using a prediction market




Primary Outcome Measures :
  1. Predictions of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths [ Time Frame: 24 hours ]

    Participants are asked 16 questions of the following format:

    "What do you think will be the total cumulative number of cases in Singapore on 8th of June, at 12pm?"

    Each question has 5 answer options. Each answer option is a range of possible outcomes. The primary outcome measure is participants' perceived likelihood of each answer option.

    The 16 questions come from the following variations: 4 countries (Mexico, Singapore, Turkey, USA) x 2 outcome measures (cases, deaths) x 2 time periods (8th of June, 6th of July).



Secondary Outcome Measures :
  1. Fear [ Time Frame: 24 hours (participants are required to submit post-experiment survey within 24 hours of completion of the main experiment) ]
    Fear is measured by participants' responses to subjective attitude questions in the post-experiment survey. The questions are on a 5-point Likert scale.



Information from the National Library of Medicine

Choosing to participate in a study is an important personal decision. Talk with your doctor and family members or friends about deciding to join a study. To learn more about this study, you or your doctor may contact the study research staff using the contacts provided below. For general information, Learn About Clinical Studies.


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Ages Eligible for Study:   18 Years and older   (Adult, Older Adult)
Sexes Eligible for Study:   All
Accepts Healthy Volunteers:   Yes
Criteria

Inclusion Criteria:

  • National University of Singapore students

Exclusion Criteria:

  • N/A

Information from the National Library of Medicine

To learn more about this study, you or your doctor may contact the study research staff using the contact information provided by the sponsor.

Please refer to this study by its ClinicalTrials.gov identifier (NCT number): NCT04410692


Locations
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Singapore
National University of Singapore
Singapore, Singapore
Sponsors and Collaborators
National University, Singapore
Investigators
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Principal Investigator: Teck Ho, PhD National University, Singapore
Publications:
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Responsible Party: Ho Teck Hua, Senior Deputy President & Provost, National University, Singapore
ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04410692    
Other Study ID Numbers: SG-COVID
First Posted: June 1, 2020    Key Record Dates
Last Update Posted: June 2, 2020
Last Verified: May 2020
Individual Participant Data (IPD) Sharing Statement:
Plan to Share IPD: Yes
Plan Description: Investigators will not be storing or sharing any personal identifiers. All individual level data will be anonymized, and only anonymized data will be shared with other researchers, upon request.
Supporting Materials: Study Protocol
Informed Consent Form (ICF)
Analytic Code
Time Frame: After completion of all analysis. It will be made available in the supporting documentation.
Access Criteria: It will be made available in the supporting documentation.

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Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated Drug Product: No
Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated Device Product: No