Can the Prediction Market Improve Predictions of COVID-19?
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|ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04410692|
Recruitment Status : Completed
First Posted : June 1, 2020
Last Update Posted : June 2, 2020
The goal of this study is to better understand how people predict the future risks of the novel Coronavirus (COVID-19).
Specifically, the investigators will ask the following research questions:
- How well do participants predict the future risks of COVID-19?
- Can the predictions be improved by using a prediction market mechanism?
- Does the prediction market reduce people's fear of COVID-19?
|Condition or disease||Intervention/treatment||Phase|
|Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice||Other: Prediction Market||Not Applicable|
|Study Type :||Interventional (Clinical Trial)|
|Actual Enrollment :||560 participants|
|Intervention Model:||Parallel Assignment|
|Masking:||None (Open Label)|
|Official Title:||Can the Prediction Market Improve Predictions of COVID-19?|
|Actual Study Start Date :||May 15, 2020|
|Actual Primary Completion Date :||May 16, 2020|
|Actual Study Completion Date :||May 17, 2020|
No Intervention: Control
Participants' COVID-19 predictions are elicited via a survey
Participants' COVID-19 predictions are elicited via a prediction market
Other: Prediction Market
Participants "bet" on likely future outcomes using a prediction market
- Predictions of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths [ Time Frame: 24 hours ]
Participants are asked 16 questions of the following format:
"What do you think will be the total cumulative number of cases in Singapore on 8th of June, at 12pm?"
Each question has 5 answer options. Each answer option is a range of possible outcomes. The primary outcome measure is participants' perceived likelihood of each answer option.
The 16 questions come from the following variations: 4 countries (Mexico, Singapore, Turkey, USA) x 2 outcome measures (cases, deaths) x 2 time periods (8th of June, 6th of July).
- Fear [ Time Frame: 24 hours (participants are required to submit post-experiment survey within 24 hours of completion of the main experiment) ]Fear is measured by participants' responses to subjective attitude questions in the post-experiment survey. The questions are on a 5-point Likert scale.
To learn more about this study, you or your doctor may contact the study research staff using the contact information provided by the sponsor.
Please refer to this study by its ClinicalTrials.gov identifier (NCT number): NCT04410692
|National University of Singapore|
|Principal Investigator:||Teck Ho, PhD||National University, Singapore|